Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
